Astrology: Science or Pseudoscience?
Part I; Urban Legends
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by Mike Johnson
Our Mensa Forum speaker August
2002 was the highly acclaimed astrologer/psychiatrist Dr. Mitchell Gibson. Dr.
Gibson, Chief Research Scientist for the accredited Astrological Institute of
Scottsdale, maintains that “modern astrology is a Science”. He was invited back
to continue his presentation of December 2001. This time he expanded his topic
somewhat, beginning with a presentation of various psychic abilities credited
to historic figures such as Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce and others. Attendees supplied
their own memorable psychic experiences. I maintained an excruciating
self-imposed vow of silence throughout the meeting but would now like to offer
my view as a scientific skeptic. As a Life member of the Phoenix Skeptics, a
chapter of CSICOP, the Committee for Scientific Investigation of Claims of the
Paranormal, I expect my own views to be treated with skepticism. From years of
exposure I do have a “bias”, a skepticism of the widespread claims of what appear
to be supernatural abilities. I am also guilty of periodic irreverence when faced
with such claims.
I would like to discuss two topics:
1. Part I: The question of accuracy in reporting surprising situations.
Urban legends are so numerous that I will illustrate with just one from Dr Gibson’s
own book, that of Sir Isaac Newton’s alleged support of astrology.
2. Part II (next month): The lack of serious science related to astrology.
I’ll discuss the findings and reservations of the Astrological Association of
Great Britain as reported in their Journal of Astrological Research; Correlation.
Nostradamus and Newton
Anecdotal reports are too numerous to check out every case. They
can be so easily contrived, misreported or misremembered and embellished. Unfortunately
each would require considerable effort to research even when that is possible.
For example: consider the run of the mill regressed soul who
claims to have been a nobleman in France, killed in the Battle of Wotnot and
buried in such and such a cemetery in 1722! Making the claim is easy, but
the factual confirmation would be rather expensive. When selected claims have
been carefully checked they invariably fail, but more are instantly created.
So we end up with a heap of questionable case histories from which the new
age proponents can draw to impress the gullible. The problem
is a matter of credibility. I will therefore select just one extremely well
documented case – that of Sir Isaac Newton since, as the granddaddy of science,
he has been studied and analyzed in great depth.
Newton and Astrology; Urban Legend
Dr. Gibson’s “Astrological and Psychiatric Breakthrough” book “Signs of Mental
Illness” perpetrates the Sir Isaac Newton myth. On page 3, ironically in the chapter
labeled Facts and Fictions, Dr. Gibson states: “Critics of astrology
are quick to condemn it as a pseudo-science and superstition. But in that case,
what are we to make of the truly great minds who were lifelong students and proponents
of astrology? How are we to explain Newton’s unequivocal defense of the subject
and his terse dismissal of those who condemn astrology without studying or testing
its validity?”
I ran an Internet search on Newton, astrology... using Google. [Please don’t
trust me - you can easily do the same.] It turned up “Isaac Newton and Astrology,
Witness for the Defence or for the Prosecution?” by Robert H. van Gent [http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/astrology/newton.htm].
Interestingly the key references are based on reports of the Astrological Association
of Great Britain (AAGB). They publish Correlation, Journal of Astrological
Research. I’d like to extract a few items from the article:
1. Newton’s nephew, John Conduitt (1688-1737), who
was collecting biographical material on his illustrious uncle, interviewed Newton
on August 31, 1726, shortly before his death. During this interview, Newton
confided to Conduitt that his interest in science had first been roused in the
summer of 1663, when, as a young student at Cambridge, he purchased a book on
astrology at the midsummer fair at Stourbridge. Baffled by the incomprehensible
astrological diagrams and calculations in this work he then studied some books
on geometry and calculus (such as by Euclid, Frans van Schooten and René Descartes)
and was “soon convinced of the vanity & emptiness of the pretended science
of Judicial astrology”.
2. Newton scholar and English historian of science Derek Thomas
Whiteside has stated that he never found any reference to astrology among the
50 million words which have been preserved from Newton’s hand.
3. Newton’s Library at his death, contained 1752 books with identifiable
titles, no more than four books on the subject of astrology: a work by the German
astrologer Johann Essler from Mainz (end 15th/begin 16th century), a treatise
on palmistry and astrology by the English doctor/astrologer Richard Saunders
(1613-1675), an almanac from the same using the pseudonym Cardanus Rider and
finally a work debunking astrology by the philosopher-poet and Cambridge professor
Henry More (1614-1687). If we get Newton wrong, what confidence can
we have in anecdotal reports of lesser mortals?
So What Now – Peer Review?
Glenn Case’s editorial in the August MAAM challenged the validity of review of
Dr. Gibson’s work by astronomers and proposed that psychiatrists’ review would
be more appropriate. Maybe, but at his previous Mensa appearance, in answer to
a question from the audience regarding peer review, Dr. Gibson stated that the
medical profession was not very receptive to astrology/psychiatry research. I
appreciate Glenn’s concern but would suggest that the review should be by Scientists
focussing on scientific method. And, of course, astronomers are scientists with
an added expertise, which does seem somewhat relevant. As we will
see in part II next month the Astrological Association of Great Britain seems
to offer a promising forum for review of Dr. Gibson’s research. They seem to be
wanting for sound research papers and appear to have a regard for astrology and
scientific method. Peer review is an essential part of real science and I wish
Dr. Gibson every success in trying to substantiate his research findings with
the scientific method.
Mike Johnson is a retired physicist/professional engineer/statistician. His
specialty is statistical design and analysis of experiments. He has trained
and consulted in this subject in Asia and in the USA for over 30 years.