Stealth Bull - How to be a Winner |
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If you have been watching the stock market at all you are probably
very confused.
You are not alone. One day is a hundred points up for the DOW and the next a hundred down. What is going on? There are many stocks that are going up and unless you are in the right ones you will be left behind.
The professional money managers divide stocks and mutual funds in sections they call peer group. Many times you will find that while the general market is going down there will be one or several groups that are going up. Also when the market is going up you will find some peer groups that are going in the other direction. Today there are peer groups that are doing very well – small capitalization value stocks and funds, real estate group and stocks located in emerging markets.
To find individual stocks like these is pretty difficult so I have a professional do it for me. And he does it free. I hire this person to work 60 or 80 hours a week to do my research. If he doesn’t do a good job I won’t give him any money. He first has to prove to me he knows what he is doing.
Who is this guy that I can get to make me rich and not have to pay him?
It is the manager of a no-load mutual fund. Fund managers were paid an average of $275,000 last year so you won’t have to feel sorry for him. In my opinion most of them are over paid because last year 90% of all stock mutual funds lost money. It is the other 10% I want to be invested in. Where are they hiding? Why hasn’t your broker told you about them?
First, your broker will never tell you about a mutual fund that does not pay him a commission. That is how he makes his living so I can’t fault him. There several places you can find excellent funds. If you don’t have a computer you may look in Investor’s Business Daily newspaper. Once each week they will list the best performing mutual funds for the past 6 months. You will check them with your discount broker to see if they have any commission charge. As long as that fund remains in the top 15 on the list you will have a winner. When it drops below you sell it and buy a better one. Yes, it’s that simple.
If you have a computer it is even easier. Go to www.smartmoney.com, click on mutual funds and they will give you a complete list. There are many other web sites with this kind of information.
If you are going to make money in the market you must be in the current strongest peer group sectors at all times. That means that when the fund you own starts down you must get rid of it in favor of one that is going up NOW. Never mind the 3-year and 5-year performance nonsense.
With this strange mixed market we have now you must be where the UP action is. The bull is sneaking around very stealthily. You can find out where he is and join him.
Everyone who invests in the stock market wants to be a winner. Each person’s definition of a winner will be somewhat different, but there is hardly one who isn’t looking for that stock that will double in price within one year.
Can it be done? Yes, but when you look at the odds you may want to find a better or maybe slower and safer way. The chance of finding that mother load is 1 in 200, about ½ percent. Of the 11,000 listed securities you have a choice of 55. Even the pros don’t like those odds. What makes you think you are better?
We have been in a great bull market from 1982 to 2000. Then the bubble burst. Yet the investing public continues to believe that we are going to see double digit returns every year. According to the Financial Research Corporation’s study the mutual fund pros return was only 10.92% and the average investor had gains of about 8.7%. The great Warren Buffett says the bull is over and that we will be looking at a 5% return not the 12% to 15% that has occurred in the recent past.
As I mentioned in my recent column the returns for the past 126 years has only averaged 7% with 2/3 of the return coming from dividends which are about nonexistent today. Instead of looking for the rainbow with the pot of gold at the end my suggestion is to limit your losses and let your winners run. You have heard that cliché before, but have you every understood what it means in the stock market? The floor traders and hedge fund managers do not look for home runs. They look for slow and steady and never allow any major losses. The key to long term investment success is to limit your losing positions and never give back profits you have earned.
If tech investors in 1999 had followed this principle they would have kept about 80% of their profits. Wall Street says you should Buy and Hold and they have told this lie so often that it has become conventional wisdom. It is absolute stupidity. A simple trailing stop-loss order would have protected the investor’s capital. Almost no broker and certainly no brokerage house recommends loss limit orders. No one is taught the basic winning concept of the market – an exit strategy. Until that is learned you are doomed to give back your winnings and take losses when a stock doesn’t go up and heads down.
Most investors have no plan as to how much money they would like to accumulate nor how to intelligently go about it. They don’t know where they are going and they don’t want o be late.
When you have decided how much you need to save the next important step is not what to buy, but how to exit in the event what you do buy happens to go down instead of up.
Corporations have also taken on huge amounts of debt. Many businesses were happy with a net, net profit of 5% to 10% yet today the real cost of company debt is running about 10% which doesn’t leave much for the bottom line. Fewer and fewer companies are paying dividends because they don’t have enough money left over for their investors. Now many have such poor cash flow that they do not have the cash for new equipment and the banks are not in a lending mood. Profit margins are at their lowest in the past 50 years. The talking heads on CNBC-TV mention capital appreciation as the way to make your profit. Pick a good stock and watch it go up.
We have had an 18-year bull market that ended in 2000. All you needed was a dartboard to be able to choose a stock that was going up. Everyone was weaned away from dividends. As long as it was going up who cares if you get a little check at the end of the year? Here is an interesting statistic that may shock you as it did me. From 1871 to 1997, 126 years, common stocks went up about 7% per year, BUT only 1.6% of the increase was due to price appreciation. The balance of 5.4% came from dividends. And today, for all practical purposes, there aren’t any.
If you want prosperity now and when you retire you must create it for yourself. Don’t figure that Uncle Sam is going to maintain your current life style after you quit working.
Saving money, paying your bills and smart investing have not gone out of style.